Cost of Single-Payer Healthcare in California

Split 75/25, minus Medicare+Medicaid, no other revenue, progressive tax rates

Household Contribution (75%) (3 Rate Examples)
$30K … $30.08/month
$60K … $217.93/month
$90K … $465.47/month

Employer Contribution (25%)
$1.42/hr per employee

Methodology

The last available figures for Total CA Healthcare Expenditures were used as the basis for what California could cover. This figure includes Dental, Vision, and all prescription drug costs. If this total decreased, rates would decrease. If federal exchange subsidies somehow were preserved, or if any other revenue source was added, rates would also decrease.

Total CA healthcare expenditures ($6238 * 38.9M) = $242,658,200,000

Even though the last per capita expenditure data is 2009, this is multiplied by the population figure is from the 2015 budget, in an attempt to more closely reflect current total expenditures.

Net healthcare = Total healthcare – (Medicare + Medicaid) = $163,892,864,660

Medicare and Medicaid are subtracted out since these are already paid by existing taxes.

Household contribution rates are calculated based on personal income tax returns, not per person. The methodology for calculating the rate is shown below and is a progressive rate, based on the tax return data available (2014). The last rate example for $90K/yr income was shown since at that point, over 80% of households are included.

The employer contribution is calculated in $/hr to keep it as a simple and predictable cost per employee. This turned out to be significantly less overall than if the current 45% employer coverage rate was applied across the board. This contribution could be offset for smaller businesses by eliminating workers comp, delaying the new minimum wage phase-in by a year, or phasing-in the new contribution over two years.

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Household Contribution (per tax return filed)

75% net healthcare = $122,919,648,495

$30,000 – 30,999
0.0525% TTL = $64,532,815.46
178,975 tax returns
$360.57/yr
$30.08/month

$60,000 – 69,999
1.64% TTL = $2,015,882,235.32
770,856 tax returns
$2615.12/yr
$217.93/month

$90,000 – 99,999
2.02% TTL = $2,482,976,899.60
444,525 tax returns
$5585.69/yr
$465.47/month

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Employer Contribution

25% net healthcare = $40,973,216,165

Employer share / Total Employment = 2960.77 emp/yr

$227.75 emp/4wks
$56.94 emp/week
$1.42 emp/hr (40 hr week)

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Sources

2014 CA Personal Income Tax
15,856,019 returns received
Total Tax Liability (TTL) = $65,458,897,000
https://www.ftb.ca.gov/Archive/AboutFTB/Tax_Statistics/Reports/2015/B-1.pdf

Total CA employment, 2014
13,838,702
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/BZA110214/06

2009 CA healthcare expenditure per capita (latest figures)
$6238
http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/health-spending-per-capita/?currentTimeframe=0&selectedRows=%7B%22nested%22:%7B%22california%22:%7B%7D%7D%7D

2015 CA Population (est.) 38.9 million people
http://www.ebudget.ca.gov/2015-16/pdf/BudgetSummary/DemographicInformation.pdf

Total CA healthcare expenditures $242,658,200,000 ($6238 * 38.9M)

2014 CA Medicaid = 50,165,335,340
https://ballotpedia.org/Medicaid_spending_in_California

2014 CA Medicare = 28,600,000,000
http://medicare-usage.healthgrove.com/l/192/California

Net healthcare = Total healthcare – (Medicare + Medicaid) = 163,892,864,660

2015 Health Insurance Coverage of the Total Population
http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/total-population/?currentTimeframe=0&selectedRows=%7B%22nested%22:%7B%22california%22:%7B%7D%7D%7D